There are currently 435 nuclear reactors in operation worldwide; however, because of the growing demand for energy (consumption is expected to double by 2030) and the need to move away from fossil fuel burning, there are approximately 160 more reactors either under construction or scheduled to be built. This equates to a possible 600 reactors worldwide by 2025.

Currently the world’s operating nuclear reactors require around 168 million pounds of U3O8 per year. Primary uranium (uranium that comes directly from mines) production declined steadily between 1981 and 2003, and during the same period of time there was very little uranium exploration. This has led to a situation where only 61% of reactor requirements are coming from primary sources. The balance is coming from secondary sources which include:

1. Non-government inventories
2. Government inventories of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium
3. Re-enriched tails
4. Recycling of spent nuclear fuel

The big question is: how long will secondary uranium supplies be able to fill the demand-supply gap? A study conducted by the World Nuclear Association in 2005 calculated the best case scenario of secondary uranium resources, using today’s annual reactor requirements of 168 million pounds U3O8, and they determined that there is a maximum of 1,364 million pounds of secondary U3O8 remaining. As reactor requirements are expected to increase in the coming decades, and there is a finite supply of secondary sources, primary uranium production is going to need to increase to fill the gap. This will require investment in exploration and the development of new mines.

The following chart produced by the World Nuclear Association shows lower, middle and upper projected reactor requirement scenarios versus the projected U3O8 supply scenario. These projections show that primary and secondary sources will meet the lower reactor requirements for the foreseeable future but that they will only meet middle and upper reactor requirements until about 2013.